Journal of Empirical Finance, Volume 48, September 2018, Pages 321-340

达到分析师预期在私人贷款市场重要吗？

作者：Chen-Lung Chin (National Chengchi University)

Mei-Hui Chen (National Defense University)

Po-Hsiang Yu (National Chengchi University)

摘要：之前的研究发现，达到或超过分析师盈利预期（MBE）的公司拥有更高的股票估值和更低的债券收益率价差。与那些关注公共金融市场的研究相比，本文探讨了公司MBE对其私人贷款条款的影响，包括价格和非价格条款。我们发现，尽管银行拥有优越的信息获取和处理能力，可以降低借款人的信息不对称成本，但他们仍然会为公司提供更优惠的价格（即较低的贷款利差）和非价格（较长的贷款期限）条款，因为他们期望公司达到盈利预期。此外，我们发现，对于经济困难的公司来说，达到预期（即较低的贷款利差和较长的贷款期限）的好处比财务稳健的公司更为明显。本文进一步分析了前景理论是否能够以及如何用于解释差别贷款条款。

关键词：达到分析师的盈利预期；贷款市场；贷款价差；贷款期限

Does meeting analysts’ forecasts matter in the private loan market?

Chen-Lung Chin (National Chengchi University)，Mei-Hui Chen (National Defense University)，Po-Hsiang Yu (National Chengchi University)

ABSTRACT

Prior studies find that firms meeting or beating analysts’ earnings expectations (MBE) have higher equity valuation and lower bond yield spread. In contract to those studies which focus on public financial markets, this paper explores a firm’s MBE effect on its private loan terms, including price and non-price terms. We find that, despite the fact that banks possess superior information access and processing abilities that reduce information asymmetry costs for borrowers, they still impose more favorable price (i.e., lower loan spread) and non-price (longer loan maturity) terms for firms meeting expectations than for firms missing expectations. In addition, we find that the benefits of meeting expectations (i.e. lower loan spread and longer maturity) are more pronounced for financially distressed firms (habitual beaters) than financially sound firms (sporadic beaters). Further analyses document whether and how prospect theory can be used to explain differential loan terms.

Keywords: Meeting analysts’ earnings expectations; Loan market; Loan spread; Loan maturity

原文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539818300549

翻译：陈然